The Catalonian independence movement, under severe autocratic pressure from Madrid, can be forgiven for feeling their backs are against the wall. After all, their political leaders are either in jail undergoing the indignities of a kangaroo court in Madrid or far away in exile.

The short term is grim with the very likely possibility of the revocation of autonomy either with a new right wing government (PP/C/VOX) or when the impending global economic/financial crisis hits .. and leads to a cash-strapped PSOE regime .. stamping on Catalonia again. And long sentences for their political prisoners.

The Spanish elections of 28 April changes very little.

As the left wing Podemos used to say (when they were really radical and fresh) the ruling PSOE is merely the member of the political caste. Nowadays, the telegenic Podemos leadership is a junior partner of PSOE and electoralist – so much so they are prepared to sacrifice Catalan demands for independence for a ill-defined dream (hallucination) of winning power and serious influence in the Rest of Spain.

The European elections on May 22/23 may however offer something .. the alliance of the Basque and Catalan pro-independence parties (along with symbolic participation of the Galicians) takes us back to the 1920s and 1930s ……. a powerful challenge to Madrid and the opening up two (or more) fronts against Madrid.

The Catalan independence movement made a strategic error in not coordinating with the Basques – for fear of being tainted by the rabid Spanish mass media as being somehow linked to the (long-gone) the Etarras …

ERC (Junqueras’ party) has rectified that now by allying with EH Bildu.

This will become a more or less permanent alliance – going beyond the European elections and broaden the discussion into the re-shaping of the entire Iberian peninsula (including Portugal)…..

The rightwing Basque Autonomous Party (PNV where the ‘N’ stands for nationalist but should be replaced by A for Autonomy or PAV) has declined to ally with the old Convergencia (now PDeCat). It will win well in Basqueland …… maybe .. but it is yesterday’s party in outlook and ideas …..

.. Santiago Abascal, leader of the Reconquista-defined Far Right VOX, is a Basque … of the anti-Basque type …… his goal (and that of the Rightwing Guru or puppet master, ex-President José María Aznar) .. is to attack the economic agreement enjoyed by the Basques. …. The PAV/PNV believes it can continue to play machine politics to maintain commercial and financial privileges for ever …. they are unprepared for the centralisation of Spain (just as the Catalan elite were before they saw their leaders imprisoned and their lesser autonomous powers removed … though temporarily reinstated).

The next económic crisis will lead to a tug of war between the Basques and Spain but even more so between Barcelona and Madrid over financial flows…… expect a 21st century Boston Tea Party (or should that be a Barcelona Cava Party)…

The Boston Tea Party was an act for civil disobedience – no taxes without representation …. The Barcelona equivalent will be no payments without an internationally arranged independence referendum and / or ‘disconnection’… (hard to see today … but we are in volatile unpredictable times)

Expect an angry Catalan public to push aside some of their more timid old school political leaders .. and decide they will not comply ….. the stand off will shift from futile polite requests for a Madrid-run referendum and political statements … turning into a range of civil disobedience actions …….. the trigger will probably be the next crisis … and that crisis is coming soon